CAN Europe - Renewables Grid Initiative - EEB Webinar : Of Pipes and Pylons - Is Europe planning energy infrastructure for a Paris Agreement compatible future?

04 Mar 2020

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@CANEurope @RenewablesGrid @Green_Europe NGO Training and Exchange Webinar - ‘Of Pipes and Pylons’, Is Europe planning energy infrastructure for a Paris compatible future? #TYNDP @ENTSOG @ENTSO_E @REN21 #PACscenarios

Webinar about to start..

Register at https://t.co/iQYz6IEKWG https://t.co/gwSkvHwtUY https://t.co/yj5WRNom24

Introduction

Andrew Carryer of @RenewablesGrid will focus on

Detailed programme:

What are the TYNDPs? [Andrew Carryer - RGI]

What are the #TYNDPs?

2-year plants, produced by @ENTSO_E and @ENTSOG to help prioritize energy infrastructure development:

Importance

Importance of #TYNDPY ?

Benchmark for informing which European Projects of Common Interest are chosen through an EU Commission led process

Reference for what policymakers see as “possible” with regard to the energy transition https://t.co/kDmD5PfFNV

Timeline

Timeline of #TYNDP process

2-year rolling process https://t.co/81ki2npshf

This webinar, organized by @CANEurope @RenewablesGrid @Green_Europe @REN21 within framework of ‘PAC-project’:

Assumptions in the TYNDP 2020 Scenarios and their Paris compatibility [Jörg Mühlenhoff - CAN Europe]

Jorg Muhlenhoff, energy policy officer @CANEurope:

Will review @ENTSO_E @ENTSOG storylines and model https://t.co/LnhptoboSO

Types of draft TYNDP storylines

Currently 3 draft #TYNDP storylines suggested by grid operators:

[1] National Trends : “bottom up”, based on collected national grid operator figures

..leads +- to 80 % emission reduction trajectory by 2050 (= Paris-incompliant)

… https://t.co/lxCzHzFHbj

[2] Global Ambition

[3] Distributed Energy Scenario

–> what are fossil fuel and renewables assumptions in these scenarios?

Coal and gas reductions in the scenarios

a) Coal reduction [1] or phase-out ([2] and [3]) by 2040

(@CANEurope @RenewablesGrid @Green_Europe ask for earlier phase-out)

b) Fossil gas reduction [1], reduction [2] or phase-out [3].

(for [3]: still use for hydrogen with CSS)

c) moderate nuclear reduction in all scenarios https://t.co/QbZZ6JdF4c

Comparison with other scenarios:

a) Draft PAC: @CANEurope @RenewablesGrid @Green_Europe b) TYNDP18 (previous #TYNDP) c) @EU_Commission 1.5 technology scenario d) PRIMES 32% Renewables https://t.co/BDUMichrEy

Gas demand:

@EU_Commission 1.5 degree long-term strategy lower projected gas demand than #TYNDP scenario’s https://t.co/chbKJWEeac

Nuclear:

PAC argues for lower nuclear, compared to #TYNDP scenarios https://t.co/XcJvqcXXIo

TYNDP renewables projections:

Wind (2040) [1] 540 GW [2] 590 GW + 90 GW for hydrogen [3] 629 GW + 230 GW

Argument that these are moderate estimates compared to renewables industry projections

#TYNDP renewables: doubling/tripling Industry expects more

https://t.co/jd1OnkCtHZ https://t.co/lxnfwH59Il

Argument: flexibility options should be deployed as well, in addition to infrastructure.

EVs well modeled/considered

Current #TYNDP are argued to not look enough at

Are these scenario’s Paris-compatible?

1) Equity-based EU-share of Paris Carbon budget: 28.4 Gt CO2eq left

2) #TYNDP: energy-sector emissions + non-energy emissions: 79 Gt CO2eq by 2050

-> @ENTSO_E @ENTSOG propose carbon removals before 2050 + further removal after 2050 https://t.co/Vj4mdtHek2

Note: calculate your country-specific carbon budget based on equal per capita carbon budget distribution in 2016 (Paris agreement) using updated 2018 IPCC budgets

https://t.co/7kSUFoFkmc

Focus on the role of gas in the TYNDP 2020 Scenarios [Jonathan Bonadio - EEB]

Talk Jonathan Bonadio @Green_Europe on the role of gas in the #TYNDP scenarios https://t.co/93PgVViqWp

TYNDP gas assumptions

Closing

Background information of PAC-coalition @CANEurope @RenewablesGrid @Green_Europe :

https://t.co/lwfqAfp40G

https://t.co/WpUrufZGZ1

Discussion:

cc @openmod