- Resource Adequacy: Connecting Existing Methods, Tools, and Metrics with the Future Grid [Michael Milligan, Consultant]
- Changes in Capacity Value for Energy Storage and DR with Increasing VG Levels [Keith Parks, Senior Trading Analyst, Xcel Energy]
- RA Considerations for Renewable Integration in Japan [Kazuhiko Ogimoto, Project Professor, University of Tokyo, Japan]
- Securing RA in a VG World [Matthias Fripp, Associate Professor, University of Hawaii]
- Resource Adequacy and Markets [Rob Gramlich, President, Grid Strategies]
Resource Adequacy: Connecting Existing Methods, Tools, and Metrics with the Future Grid [Michael Milligan, Consultant]
.@EnergySystemsIG webinar started on Evolving Thinking on Resource Adequacy for High VG Scenarios @MatthiasFripp @RobGramlichDC
How many years do you need to get a reliable picture of the energy system? https://t.co/ttIl71kzyv
Case study: what would be the need for installed capacity if there is perfect transmission? https://t.co/w31kSQyPri
…and continues on the effects of loss of load events (LOL) https://t.co/UcWTMUABM5
Q: Did we have loss of load events due to insufficient capacity?
A: You could argue that some polar vortex events (or 1/50, 1/100 storm events) has caused this.
Transmission has not enough been incorporated in resource adequacy assessments.
Changes in Capacity Value for Energy Storage and DR with Increasing VG Levels [Keith Parks, Senior Trading Analyst, Xcel Energy]
 Keith Parks will present on the upcoming 2030 planning process (Changes in Capacity Value for Energy Storage and DR with Increasing VG Levels)
For @XcelEnergyCO in Colorado, which is moving fast towards a highly renewable energy system. https://t.co/WVYjPQGs5D
@XcelEnergyCO will have 1100 MW dispatchable energy by 2023, divided in demand response and energy storage
Demand response (industrial): around 295 MW interruptible demand
Demand response (residential): around 266 MW
Storage: pumped (340 MW) & solar (450 MW) https://t.co/GoRzJR5aYD
For theoretical 2.4 hour battery (in 2023): blue points = theoretical maximum
Green squares = real cases
Commercial/residential is below value, because 60-hour storage
Cabin creek is at premium (= 5 hour resource) soaks up value that is left on the table (comm./residential) https://t.co/YYAa6VOoJR
The same year, with a higher reliability standard (0.1 instead of 2.4/year). https://t.co/YdR6peyVax
The same marginal capacity credit, in 2030 (more variable solar) https://t.co/a3JN6b9yt9
- Demand response and storage capacity value declines with increasing penetration
- Capacity value increases with higher reliability standards
- Capacity value increases with higher levels of solar (because more variable renewable generation) https://t.co/YmTfDCYpK5
Q: How are resources ordered? (x-axis)
A: They are ordered by MW.
Q: How did you estimate theoretical maximum for 4-hour storage? https://t.co/HibBbzLWsw
Q: How did you estimate theoretical maximum for 4-hour storage?
A: Ran a theoretical (currently non-existing) 4 hour battery energy storage (85 % efficiency) through model, to compare and contrast the other storage/demand response items. As a visual marker.
Q: Where there assumptions made in model on usage of 4 hour storage/demand resources?
A: It is used to minimize the loss of load probability for a specific year with specific solar & wind energy profile, in order to mainting reliability standards (of 0.1, 2.4 hours loss/year).
RA Considerations for Renewable Integration in Japan [Kazuhiko Ogimoto, Project Professor, University of Tokyo, Japan]
RE increased yearly by 22 % Total PV capacity = 80 GW, 40 GW deployed (nat. target = 64 GW) https://t.co/aRybOBJjNA
Kyshu island: PV penetration of more than 8.5 GW https://t.co/45JN5GVagG
Since october 2018: 56 curtailments of renewable energy (up to june 2019), with a maximum of 2.5 GW https://t.co/qMaCjtjbU2
Example of a typical curtailment event: October 21st (2018) https://t.co/cP4L95ZtMg
3 different PV production predictions models are used https://t.co/zangKnuGnK
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plants meet ramp-up of residual demand in the evening https://t.co/98lcSADO1t
On-line control devices for 22 PV units of 394 MW have been isntalled, efforts to increase this. https://t.co/wo1ydVQACS
Approx. 60 % of PV resources can be curtailed https://t.co/HqKilU0eXI
System operation enhancement https://t.co/YT3x6rPaCN
Increased export transmission capacity is effective to reduce curtailment https://t.co/4tK1xHzx1k
Since 2019, historical maximum forecast error improvement caused a better tailored curtailment management https://t.co/HDSsJ1XFaD
Also battery units are used to reduce curtailment (50 MW plant in Kyushu) https://t.co/VIyIZiswx2
2 March 2019: demand 0.9 MW higher than forecasted. It is crucial for security of supply that reduction of PV, comes with increased demand.
However, this can be managed… https://t.co/rJdxkLeLED
…using heat pumps to reduce demands (in case of extreme forecast errors), using a certain arrangement between aggregators and customers. https://t.co/rNJ1JhXDG5
This type of heat-pump mitigation is used with a ‘‘general flexibility model’’
For Kyushu: demand of tertiary-slow reserve is defined as an extreme forecast error –> EV and heat pumps https://t.co/tWkwT2LQ9S
Example analysis of supply : heat pump (HPWH) and EV are available to reduce demand when large generation of PV/wind is forecasted
Thermal plants = slow, not economical https://t.co/l15mrDplbQ
Extreme forecast errors is an emerging issue in the Kyushu energy grid area.
Heat pumps and EV (batteries) are a possibility to mitigate the extreme forecast errors. https://t.co/8KuaXJxUKq
Closing slide. https://t.co/stPt34JFJt
Q: In the US, there is discussion on how to compensate storage. How is this debate in Japan?
A: Financial compensation? (Q: Yes) They storage facilities are owned by the transmission operators, so no financial compensation is happening or planned.
Securing RA in a VG World [Matthias Fripp, Associate Professor, University of Hawaii]
 @MatthiasFripp on Generation Adequacy with Variable Generation (Securing RA in a VG World). https://t.co/XOWALq2r9L
Hypothesis of talk: capacity value/credit assigned to variable generation is not a stable number, and is therefore not useful for planning.
Effect on system cost also depends on what else has been built -> system cost may be more important measure than capacity value https://t.co/oOfy9mNrt7
Case study with the open source switch capacity optimization software https://t.co/D1nsqhmxx1 (cc @openmod @nworbmot) of Hawaian Oahu system.
- 2045 costs (NREL, EIA)
- Allow incremental thermal capacity to complement renewables
- Projection of historical data (13 sample days) https://t.co/uAz0ASeId4
Question addressed: incremental capacity value of solar/average cost of power for increasingly renewable energy systems (up to 100 %) https://t.co/4Dg6xrsTup
100 % renewable systems are energy-limited rather than capacity limited -> management of most difficult days (november/december: low wind/sun).
There might be enough storage (batteries), but not enough RE generation (filled up with thermal capacity). https://t.co/wJ0T3jcycV
…graphs don’t tell anything about how much wind and solar need to be built.
…it is more useful to look at the average cost of power production.
(two extremes: low and high wind/battery).
Room for more advanced capacity planning in integrated resource planning process. This has been done in Hawai. https://t.co/6CdybN8R9c
Q: What was the duration of the batteries in the analysis?
A: Bulk storage batteries with 6 hour storage.
Resource Adequacy and Markets [Rob Gramlich, President, Grid Strategies]
 @RobGramlichDC on resource adequacy and markets.
Traditional: vertically integrated market with regulator (with wholesale and sometimes retail markets).
Capacity need is determined
Decentralised market through bilaterial contracts (talk focus) https://t.co/KW6R3wCkN9
Market types (resource adequacy regimes) in the US:
- Grey: traditional vertically integrated (1) https://t.co/m5BL2OD597
How could a decentralized market look like? (like it exists in Texas)
Retail suppliers = entities responsible for procuring power on long-term basis.
State regulator = making sure the suppliers have the incentive to supply power in long-term (credit worthy, …) https://t.co/VwzzLS5O4J
Market design: spot market that allows bilateral contracts to operate behind the scenes. Spot market is for residual balancing. https://t.co/6ocFigUZYC
Is this decentralized market system working ?
In hot summer (2019): supply shortage, price rise, new entries in the system. https://t.co/CevDKVqbbO
Answer: yes, summer of 2019 was strong signal for new operators to come in. https://t.co/dBUIBc2fWJ
Revenue gained above operation costs https://t.co/ArnCUKSUY1
Renewable energy is highly capital intensive, so how to evolve to highly renewable system?
-> Long-term contracts (physical/financial, variety of those). https://t.co/TqmTvb43t7
Example: highly renewable system price cost structure. https://t.co/yHgu7jARen
Pre-arranged contracts can do the job. For example: NRG contract in Texas (1.3 GW solar PPA with average term of 10 years to serve retail load) https://t.co/KiyFBMm72E
Q: What effect do renewable buyers (like @Facebook ) have on the market?
Some companies only search for credits, and not necessarily try to match their real-time consumption to 100 % renewables (@tmrowco CO2 signal @corradio @martincollignon @electricityMap)